On October 6, 2026, the Premier Alliance — the vessel-sharing group of Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM, and Yang Ming — announced that selected services will resume transits through the Red Sea and Suez Canal this month. It was the last major alliance still routing around the Cape of Good Hope, which means that by November, virtually every global ocean carrier will have at least one Asia–Europe string scheduled back through the Egyptian waterway.
For importers buying on DDP shipping from China to Europe, this is the most consequential network change since the Red Sea crisis began in late 2023. Here is what actually changed, what it does to rates and transit times, and how to position your Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 shipments.
What happened in the first week of October
Three milestones landed within days of each other:
- Premier Alliance schedules its first Suez transit in almost two years. The 8,100 TEU ONE Continuity is scheduled to leave Laem Chabang on October 19 on the FE1 Asia–North Europe service, transit the Suez Canal on November 9, and arrive in Rotterdam on November 19. Sister vessels NYK Venus, ONE Hamburg, and NYK Orion follow on Suez routings in November and December.
- COSCO makes its first westbound Suez transit since the crisis began. The 24,200 TEU OOCL Spain — among the largest container ships afloat — transited the canal westbound on October 4 on the Ocean Alliance’s AEU1/NEU1 loop, after nine eastbound canal voyages since mid-September.
- Suez transits hit their highest level since 2024. Analysts at Linerlytica counted 30 containerships above 4,000 TEU passing through the canal in a single week, and estimate that 140 boxships totaling more than 2 million TEU of capacity have made the “structural switch” from Cape routings to Suez since May. Maritime Strategies International puts roughly 35% of Asia–Europe departures already back on the Red Sea route.
Why this releases real capacity, not just symbolism
The Cape of Good Hope detour added roughly 10–12 days to a typical Asia–North Europe round voyage. Every vessel that returns to Suez shortens that loop, which means a weekly service needs one to two fewer ships to maintain the same schedule. Multiply that by 140 ships and you get a meaningful injection of effective capacity into the Asia–Europe trade — capacity that had been silently absorbed by longer sailings for nearly three years.
The market is already reflecting it. According to the Freightos weekly update of October 6:
- Asia–North Europe spot rates dipped 2–3% to around $3,260 per FEU
- Asia–Mediterranean rates slid to about $3,555 per FEU, back to pre-peak-season levels
- North Europe rates remain roughly $400/FEU above mid-May levels, suggesting the decline is gradual rather than a collapse
Analysts at MSI caution that a fuller Suez return could weigh on carrier earnings precisely because it releases so much capacity — although their charter-market outlook still sees strong demand for feeder and mid-size tonnage into the first half of 2027.
What it means for DDP shippers
1. Transit times get shorter — but not immediately. The first Premier Alliance arrivals via Suez land in Europe in late November. Expect published schedules to show 7–10 days shaved off Asia–North Europe transits through Q1 2027. For sea freight DDP shipping from China, that directly compresses door-to-door lead times to Northern Europe, the Mediterranean, and — via transshipment — North Africa.
2. Rate relief is coming, unevenly. Mediterranean pricing has already reset to pre-peak levels, while North Europe is still digesting congestion at hubs like Rotterdam and lingering port delays in Asia. A forwarder quoting genuine all-inclusive DDP can absorb these swings inside a fixed rate — which is exactly why DDP exists as an Incoterm. If you are comparing offers, our breakdown of how DDP shipping works explains which surcharges should and should not appear on your invoice.
3. Blank sailings still bite in the short term. Carriers blanked 14–17% of sailings around China’s Golden Week (October 1–7) to protect rates, and typhoon disruption at South China ports added 7–10 day delays at Shanghai in September. The capacity release from Suez will take weeks to flow through, so November bookings can still be tight. If you missed the pre-Golden-Week window, our earlier Suez comeback analysis covers the congestion picture in detail.
4. Don’t bank on a straight line down. Every schedule change is labeled “tentative” for a reason: war-risk insurance premiums, Houthi activity near Bab el-Mandeb, and the regional security situation can reverse the return within weeks. Shippers should treat H1 2027 as a likely soft-rate window, not a guaranteed one. Locking a fixed DDP quote now removes the guessing.
Planning checklist for Q4 2026 – Q1 2027
- Book November–December Europe-bound cargo early — blank-sailing effects and hub congestion will outlast the headline news.
- Re-quote January–March shipments — as Suez routings normalize, all-inclusive DDP rates should trend down; use our DDP shipping cost guide to sanity-check what you’re offered.
- Revisit supplier lead times — a stable 7–10 day faster transit may let you cut safety stock on fast-moving SKUs.
- Work with a forwarder that monitors both routings — a partner holding options on Suez and Cape sailings can reroute quickly if the security picture deteriorates.
The bottom line
The Red Sea comeback is no longer a forecast — by November it is the operating reality of the Asia–Europe trade. More effective capacity, shorter voyages, and gradually softening rates are good news for anyone importing from China on DDP terms. The winners in 2027 will be the importers who lock transparent, all-inclusive pricing now and let their forwarder manage the routing volatility underneath.
DDPShipping runs DDP door-to-door routes from China to Europe and beyond with fixed quotes covering freight, duties, and customs clearance — no hidden surcharges when the market swings. Contact us for a rate check before your next shipment.